Modelling of Regional Marketing Information System under Conditions of Passing to Market Economy for Ukraine

Ye. P. Kushnariov, M.I. Bondarenko, I.V. Semeniak, and B.S. Elkin
Kharkov Institute of Business and Management, Ukraine

Abstract

Economic changes during transitional periods occur, first of all, in the resource allocation, in property relations, in reorganization of the production and in the social sphere. Analysis of historical precedents of passing from one economy to another, considered in the light of the well-known transformation models provides a sufficient basis for the taxonomy of various transition strategies.

The latter can be statistically described as those where the resources are allocated mainly under the state control; where the economic power is substantially redistributed and the local monopolistic control and locally governed resource allocation become domineering; where the liberal corporative model with the market feedback is introduced with various ways of overcoming transformation crises depending on the economic structure, adopted methods of reforms, as well as the citizens' mentality and traditions. Under the concrete socio-economic circumstances of 1995 practically all experts ceased to reduce the economies of different countries to one transformation model, which was confirmed at the World Bank conference on the problems of transitional period of the ``second generation" developing countries. (OECD, 1995).

A distinct comprehension of the targets of the economic inversion by the society determines, to a considerable degree, the management of the transformation processes, especially if the latter uses methods of simulating the economy and obtaining analytic predictions. A recent sociological poll in Ukraine has shown that almost three quarters of the population support the idea of the property privatization, but as many object to free prices, since they consider it the main cause of the inflation. Ukraine needs shaping the public opinion favorable to transformation reforms by public relations methods with the permanent monitoring of the shifts in citizens' motivation due to economic changes.

The regional autonomy granted by state laws is realized in a contrete socio-economic environment. The instability of the latter makes the management rather risky. The risk can be made rather lower if to user information processing systems simulating the main components of the economy being transformed, such as resource allocation types, property relations, reorganization of the production and main processes in the social sphere. The system must be sentitive to tendency changes and find the moments of conjunction of various models of the transitional economy. The information obtained ensures ``transparency" of state decisions and predictability of their consequences on a regional level.

To solve this problem, the Innovation information center of computer technologies is being organized under the patronage of Kharkov city council, this center shall monitor and simulate main parameters pertaining to the regional socio-economic sphere. The simulation will be based on the state and regional data banks and use Monte Carlo, statistical and qualitative model simulation.

As we have already stated, this simulation enables one to register in the proper time unfavorable features of the economic situation and to propose corrections in the type of the reforms and transformations, thus smoothing the sharp angles of the transition period and minimizing the risk that the reforms will collapse.