Abstract
"For scholars and scientists, paper is not an end but a means. It has served us well for several millennia, but it would have been surprising indeed if this manmade medium had turned out to be optimal for all time." [Scovill and Lowry1995, p. 90,].
This paper will both examine and suggest how the flow of information (journals, data, working papers, etc.) in economics will change as a result of the Internet. It seems fairly clear that at some point in the future, much of our discourse will take place over this network. Already a very substantial amount of data is available, and more and more working papers go on-line every day. This summer, even parts of the AER will go on-line. However, perhaps the most striking indication of future changes comes from a recent report by an association of academic publishers and libraries [Scovill and Lowry1995]. It examines three scenarios for the impact of the Internet in their sphere, and in two of them, some or many libraries and publishers are bypassed or even fail. Clearly, this would be a momentous change in our professional lives. Thus, we should begin to discuss these issues that cut to the very core of what we do. This paper is a tentative first step.
We will point out some enduring principles of academic discourse that should not change with the medium, some problems that may come with the new technology, and also emphasize many new opportunities. The impact on journals and libraries will be examined, as well as issues surrounding the growing importance of on-line databases. It will conclude with some basic, bare-bones suggestions on how to best implement this technology that all should agree on. While it will mention technology, and of course the economics of these issues, the primary focus will be institutional arrangements.
This paper has eight parts. A short description of each follows.
Describe an extremely simple, heuristic production model of teaching and research to serve as a framework for how networked resources will change our work.
Illustrate these advantages with a short vignette of an economist at work and how a networked world makes him more productive.
This section points out some principles of academic discourse that should remain in a networked world. Chief among these is the freest possible flow of information.
We examine the editorial and production process of journals to see what will change when a journal goes on-line. This may have very dramatic cost implications - will production costs fall sufficiently to make journals freely available? Something like this has already occurred in high energy physics.
We emphasize that while the distribution method changes, the fundamental character of a journal may be constant (for instance, electronic journals can easily be refereed). In addition, rather than emphasizing reading journals on a computer screen, the emphasis should be placed on wider access and availability of journals.
How will the role of libraries change - what will happen if journals can be obtained on-line? Will Interlibrary Loan become extinct?
How and where will electronic journals, data, and other material be archived? Is there a role for libraries? The AEA? Will one organization be in charge? How will the archives be maintained over the years and decades? What problems can we expect from changing formats, and how can they be dealt with?
Journals should sponsor archives for data and programs from their authors and require them to be used. It is remarkable how much effort goes into refereeing and reviewing the paper itself, and how little goes into the data and programs. Discuss the JMCB project, and more recent experiences by the St. Louis Fed.
A profession-wide policy on access to data may be appropriate. It would apply to both journals and publicly funded data providers.
Examine opportunities from the relatively certain to the downright speculative. These include easier access to data (including archives from publications), digital timestamps, integrated citations, and "interactive" journals with discussions between the author and readers.
Emphasize that use of existing Internet tools and other existing software would be very wise (i.e. no custom software for our profession). Other issues regarding the development of tools will be covered.
Standard ending remarks.