Computing 3SLS Solutions of Simultaneous Equation Models with Possible Singular Variance-Covariance Matrix

Erricos J. Kontoghiorghes
Centre for Mathematical Trading and Finance and Centre for Insurance and Investment
City University Business School, London

ricos@dcs.qmw.ac.uk

Abstract

In simultaneous equation models (SEMs) the assumption that the covariance matrix of the disturbances is non-singular cannot always be made. For example, allocation models and models with precise observations which may imply linear constraints on the parameters, have singular disturbance covariance matrix. The solution of such models can be obtained using the expensive computation of generalized inverse which can lead to loss of accuracy. The main motivation of this work is to provide computational strategies for solving an alternative formulation of the 3SLS estimation problem, where the disturbance covariance matrix is not required to be non-singular.

The ith structural equation of the SEM can be written as

  eqnarray31

where tex2html_wrap_inline289 is the dependent vector of the ith structural equation, tex2html_wrap_inline293 is the full column rank exogenous tex2html_wrap_inline295 matrix, tex2html_wrap_inline297 is the observation tex2html_wrap_inline299 matrix of other endogenous variables included in the ith equation, tex2html_wrap_inline303 and tex2html_wrap_inline305 are the structural parameters vector and tex2html_wrap_inline307 are the disturbances. For tex2html_wrap_inline309 and tex2html_wrap_inline311 , the stacked system of the structural equations can be written as

  eqnarray42

where tex2html_wrap_inline315 , X is a tex2html_wrap_inline319 matrix of all predetermined variables, tex2html_wrap_inline321 , tex2html_wrap_inline323 with tex2html_wrap_inline325 be a selector matrix such that tex2html_wrap_inline327 ( tex2html_wrap_inline329 ), tex2html_wrap_inline331 and tex2html_wrap_inline333 . The disturbance vector tex2html_wrap_inline335 satisfies tex2html_wrap_inline337 and tex2html_wrap_inline339 , where tex2html_wrap_inline341 is a non-negative definite matrix.

The 3SLS estimator, denoted by tex2html_wrap_inline343 , is the GLS estimator of the transformed SEM

  eqnarray59

where tex2html_wrap_inline341 is replaced by its consistent estimator tex2html_wrap_inline349 based on 2SLS residuals. The QR decomposition of X is given by

  eqnarray65

tex2html_wrap_inline363 is orthogonal, tex2html_wrap_inline365 is upper triangular non-singular matrix, tex2html_wrap_inline367 and tex2html_wrap_inline369 . Computing the Cholesky decomposition tex2html_wrap_inline371 , the tex2html_wrap_inline343 estimator derives from the solution of the normal equations

  eqnarray83

where C is a non-singular tex2html_wrap_inline379 upper triangular matrix, tex2html_wrap_inline381 and tex2html_wrap_inline383 [Belsley1992, Jennings1980]. 

For singular or ill-conditioned tex2html_wrap_inline349 the above estimation procedure fails, since tex2html_wrap_inline387 does not exist. However, this can be overcomed by rewriting the transformed SEM (3) in the equivalent form

  eqnarray102

where the rank of tex2html_wrap_inline391 is tex2html_wrap_inline393 , tex2html_wrap_inline395 has a full column rank and V is a random gK element vector with zero mean and variance-covariance matrix tex2html_wrap_inline401 , defined as tex2html_wrap_inline403 . Under this formulation the 3SLS estimator of tex2html_wrap_inline405 is the solution of the generalized linear least squares problem

  eqnarray110

The latter does not require the variance-covariance matrix to be non-singular [Kontoghiorghes and Clarke1995, Kontoghiorghes and Dinenis1996, Kourouklis and Paige1981].

Using the QR decomposition as a basic tool, firstly the numerical solution of (7) for computing the 3SLS estimator and its dispersion matrix is presented; the computation of tex2html_wrap_inline349 and redundancies in the SEM are discussed [Golub and Van Loan1983, Kontoghiorghes1995]. Secondly, computational formulae for modifying the SEM after adding or deleting observations or variables are investigated. Thirdly, the solution of the SEM with linear equality constraints is considered. The first approach uses the constraints as additional precise observations, while the other two approaches reparametarize the constraints to solve a reduce unconstraint SEM. Finally, sequential and parallel strategies are proposed for computing the main factorisations employed to solve (7), followed by the conclusions and future work, where inconsistencies in the SEM and implementation issues of the various algorithms are discussed.

References

Belsley1992
D.A. Belsley. Paring 3SLS calculations down to manageable proportions. Computer Science in Economics and Management, 5:157-169, 1992.

Golub and Van Loan1983
G.H. Golub and C.F. Van Loan. Matrix computations. North Oxford Academic, 1983.

Jennings1980
L.S. Jennings. Simulatneous equations estimation (compoutational aspects). Journal of Econometrics, 12:23-39, 1980.

Kontoghiorghes1995
E.J. Kontoghiorghes. New parallel strategies for block updating the QR decomposition. Journal of Parallel Algorithms and Applications, 5(1+2):229-239, 1995.

Kontoghiorghes and Clarke1995
E.J. Kontoghiorghes and M.R.B. Clarke. An alternative approach for the numerical solution of seemingly unrelated regression equation models. Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, 19(4):369-377, 1995.

Kontoghiorghes and Dinenis1996
E.J. Kontoghiorghes and E. Dinenis. Solving triangular seemingly unrelated regression equation models on massively parallel systems. In M. Gilli , (Ed.), Computational Economic Systems. Models Methods & Econometrics, Series: Advances in Computational Economics, pages 191-201. Kluwer Academic Publishers, 1996.

Kourouklis and Paige1981
S. Kourouklis and C. C. Paige. A constrained least squares approach to the general Gauss-Markov linear model. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 76(375):620-625, 1981.


Society of Computational Economics
Second International Conference on Computing in Economics and Finance
Geneva, Switzerland, 26-28 June 1996