An Eigenvalue Method of Undetermined Coefficients for Solving Linear Rational Expectations Models

Peter Zadrozny
University of Warsaw
Zadrozny@plearn.edu.pl

Abstract

Consider a linear rational expectations model in EVARMA(r,p,q) form,

  equation13

where y(t) is an tex2html_wrap_inline52 vector of variables and e(t) is an tex2html_wrap_inline52 vector of IID(0,I) disturbances. Under certain conditions, model (1) has the reduced-form (nonexpectational) VARMA(p,q) solution

  equation24

The paper obtains the following results for computing the reduced-form coefficient matrices tex2html_wrap_inline62 , tex2html_wrap_inline64 , in terms of given values of the structural coefficient matrices tex2html_wrap_inline66 , tex2html_wrap_inline68 . Nonlinear ``AR cross-equation" restrictions on tex2html_wrap_inline62 in terms of given values of tex2html_wrap_inline66 are derived in the form of a matrix polynomial equation (MPE). An eigenvalue method is derived for solving the MPE for values of tex2html_wrap_inline62 with prescribed stability properties (e.g., stationary or least varying). Directly solvable linear ``MA cross- equation" restrictions on tex2html_wrap_inline64 in terms of given values of tex2html_wrap_inline68 and previously computed values of tex2html_wrap_inline62 are derived. Most applications require tex2html_wrap_inline64 to be invertible. A ``dual" of the AR-eigenvalue method is described for transforming tex2html_wrap_inline64 into observationally equivalent invertible values, if necessary.

The paper contributes as follows. Unlike Blanchard and Kahn's (1980) widely used eigenvalue method, the present method doesn't require the sum of leading coefficient matrices, tex2html_wrap_inline86 , to be nonsingular and permits multiple conditioning information sets, from t to t-p. The method is apparently the first general analytical method for computing a complete solution of a general EVARMA model, in particular, with a completely determined and invertible MA part. By comparison, e.g., while Dagli and Taylor's (1986) method tolerates a singular tex2html_wrap_inline86 , it is numerical, and Evans and Honkapohja (1986) only ``characterize" the MA part of a solution. The paper also provides some insight into ``deeper structural" conditions under which the AR part of the solution is unique, by studying conditions for singularity of a derived matrix W.


Society of Computational Economics
Second International Conference on Computing in Economics and Finance
Geneva, Switzerland, 26-28 June 1996