GRL paper suggests record-breaking Swiss seasons resemble those projected for 2100

A paper published in Geophysical Research Letters in August 2007 shows that the recent spate of record-breaking warm seasons that have affected Switzerland (and much of Europe) in less than a decade and compares the seasonal statistics to those simulated for a “greenhouse-gas” climate by the end of the 21st century. The peaks of minimum and maximum temperatures observed during some the record seasons enter well into the 25% - 75% temperature quantile range for the scenario climate simulated by a set of regional climate models. The anomalously warm seasons allow a “preview” of conditions that may occur with greater frequency in the future. The use of current data as a form of proxy for the future enables an assessment of the possible impacts on the natural and socio-economic environments, and can help in considering possible adaptation strategies to reduce some of the associated risks of climatic change. Based on the statistics in this paper, the conclusions drawn are that 6 winters in 10 will be like the 2006/2007 winter in Switzerland; 7 springs in 10 like the 2007 season; 1 summer in 2 like the 2003 heat wave; and 6 autumns in 10 like the autumn of 2006.

Beniston, M., 2007: Entering into the "greenhouse century": recent record temperatures in Switzerland are comparable to the upper temperature quantiles in a greenhouse climate. Geophysical Research Letters, 34, L16710. This paper can be downloaded by clicking on the following link and accessing the paper (nr 78 in the list)

Figure 1 below show that the quantiles of seasons such as the Autumn of 2006 fall into the upper quantiles of the autumns projected by the HIRHAM regional climate model by 2100. Certain days of that particular autumn indeed exceed the 90% quantile of future autumns, indicating that we have lived through, on occasion, seasons of the future. Similar seasons that resemble the future are the winter 2006/2007; spring 2007; and summer 2003.