Manpower planning revisited

<BODY> <CENTER><A TARGET="_top" HREF="/sentiers/edition/theses/catalogue.html"><IMG SRC="../../images/b_catalogue.gif" ALT="Retour au catalogue des thèses" Border="0" WIDTH="109" height="35"></A></CENTER> <BR><BR> <P><A TARGET="BodyFrame" HREF="these_front.html#i"><STRONG>Résumé</STRONG></A></P> <P><A TARGET="BodyFrame" HREF="these_front.html#ii"><STRONG>Summary</STRONG></A></P> <HR NOSHADE> <P><A HREF="these_body.html#th.i"><STRONG>I: Employment and manpower planning techniques</STRONG></A></P> <UL> <LI><A HREF="these_body.html#th.i.1"><STRONG>1. Introduction</STRONG></A> </LI> <LI><A HREF="these_body.html#th.i.2"><STRONG>2. The manpower requirements approach (MRA)</STRONG></A> <UL> <LI><A HREF="these_body.html#th.i.2.1">2.1 The dominant model</A> </LI> <LI><A HREF="these_body.html#th.i.2.2">2.2 The critics</A> </LI> </UL> </LI> <LI><A HREF="these_body.html#th.i.3"><STRONG>3. Rate of return approach</STRONG></A> </LI> <LI><A HREF="these_body.html#th.i.4"><STRONG>4. Labour market information systems</STRONG></A> </LI> <LI><A HREF="these_body.html#th.i.5"><STRONG>5. Cybernetic and pragmatic approaches</STRONG></A> </LI> <LI><A HREF="these_body.html#th.i.6"><STRONG>6. Key informants</STRONG></A> </LI> <LI><A HREF="these_body.html#th.i.7"><STRONG>7. Labor market signaling</STRONG></A> </LI> <LI><A HREF="these_body.html#th.i.8"><STRONG>8. Labour accounting matrices (LAM's)</STRONG></A> </LI> <LI><A HREF="these_body.html#th.i.9"><STRONG>9. Concluding remarks</STRONG></A> </LI> <LI><A HREF="these_body.html#th.i.10"><STRONG>References</STRONG></A> </LI> </UL> <P><A HREF="these_body.html#th.ii"><STRONG>II: An overview of major theories of labour market mismatch</STRONG></A></P> <UL> <LI><A HREF="these_body.html#th.ii.11"><STRONG>1. Introduction</STRONG></A> </LI> <LI><A HREF="these_body.html#th.ii.12"><STRONG>2. Classical economists</STRONG></A> </LI> <LI><A HREF="these_body.html#th.ii.13"><STRONG>3. Neo-classical economists</STRONG></A> </LI> <LI><A HREF="these_body.html#th.ii.14"><STRONG>4. Social reformes</STRONG></A> </LI> <LI><A HREF="these_body.html#th.ii.15"><STRONG>5. Development economists</STRONG></A> </LI> <LI><A HREF="these_body.html#th.ii.16"><STRONG>6. Monetarists and employment</STRONG></A> </LI> <LI><A HREF="these_body.html#th.ii.17"><STRONG>7. Segmentation and empirical theories</STRONG></A> </LI> <LI><A HREF="these_body.html#th.ii.18"><STRONG>8. Recent neo-classical views</STRONG></A> </LI> <LI><A HREF="these_body.html#th.ii.19"><STRONG>9. Concluding remarks</STRONG></A> </LI> </UL> <P><A HREF="these_body.html#th.iii"><STRONG>III: The measurement and monitoring of mismatches (employment and unemployment)</STRONG></A></P> <UL> <LI><A HREF="these_body.html#th.iii.20"><STRONG>1. Introduction</STRONG></A> </LI> <LI><A HREF="these_body.html#th.iii.21"><STRONG>2. Concepts of labour force participation and underutilisation</STRONG></A> <UL> <LI><A HREF="these_body.html#th.iii.21.3">2.1. Subemployment index</A> </LI> <LI><A HREF="these_body.html#th.iii.21.4">2.2 Basic needs approach</A> </LI> <LI><A HREF="these_body.html#th.iii.21.5">2.3 Labour efficiency approach</A> </LI> <LI><A HREF="these_body.html#th.iii.21.6">2.4 Symptomatic approach</A> </LI> <LI><A HREF="these_body.html#th.iii.21.7">2.5 The Hauser approach</A> </LI> </UL> </LI> <LI><A HREF="these_body.html#th.iii.22"><STRONG>3. Employment definitions currently applied</STRONG></A> <UL> <LI><A HREF="these_body.html#th.iii.22.8">3.1 Unemployment</A> </LI> <LI><A HREF="these_body.html#th.iii.22.9">3.2 Employment</A> </LI> <LI><A HREF="these_body.html#th.iii.22.10">3.3 Further disaggregation</A> </LI> <LI><A HREF="these_body.html#th.iii.22.11">3.4 Underemployment</A> </LI> <LI><A HREF="these_body.html#th.iii.22.12">3.5 Informal sector employment</A> </LI> </UL> </LI> <LI><A HREF="these_body.html#th.iii.23"><STRONG>4. Occupation and skill</STRONG></A> </LI> <LI><A HREF="these_body.html#th.iii.24"><STRONG>5. Concluding remarks</STRONG></A> </LI> <LI><A HREF="these_body.html#th.iii.25"><STRONG>References</STRONG></A> </LI> </UL> <P><A HREF="these_body.html#th.iv"><STRONG>IV: A description of the MACBETH model</STRONG></A></P> <UL> <LI><A HREF="these_body.html#th.iv.26"><STRONG>1. Introduction</STRONG></A> </LI> <LI><A HREF="these_body.html#th.iv.27"><STRONG>2. Methodology of projections</STRONG></A> <UL> <LI><A HREF="these_body.html#th.iv.27.13">2.1 Population projections</A> </LI> <LI><A HREF="these_body.html#th.iv.27.14">2.2 Education projections</A> <UL> <LI><A HREF="these_body.html#th.iv.27.14.1">2.2.1 Student projections</A> </LI> <LI><A HREF="these_body.html#th.iv.27.14.2">2.2.2 Education cost projections</A> </LI> </UL> </LI> <LI><A HREF="these_body.html#th.iv.27.15">2.3 Employment projections</A> <UL> <LI><A HREF="these_body.html#th.iv.27.15.3">2.3a. Economic growth projections</A> </LI> <LI><A HREF="these_body.html#th.iv.27.15.4">2.3b. Employment demand projections</A> </LI> <LI><A HREF="these_body.html#th.iv.27.15.5">2.3c. Labour pool and labour force projections</A> </LI> <LI><A HREF="these_body.html#th.iv.27.15.6">2.3d. Labour balance projections </A> </LI> <LI><A HREF="these_body.html#th.iv.27.15.7">2.3e. Investment for creating full employment </A> </LI> <LI><A HREF="these_body.html#th.iv.27.15.8">2.3f. Occupational mobility </A> </LI> <LI><A HREF="these_body.html#th.iv.27.15.9">2.3g. Education and cost implications of occupational mobility</A> </LI> </UL> </LI> </UL> </LI> <LI><A HREF="these_body.html#th.iv.28"><STRONG>3. Final remarks</STRONG></A> </LI> <LI><A HREF="these_body.html#th.iv.29"><STRONG>References</STRONG></A> </LI> <LI><A HREF="these_body.html#th.iv.30"><STRONG>Appendix 1 : The MACBETH model</STRONG></A> <UL> <LI><A HREF="these_body.html#th.iv.30.16">a. List of endogoneous variables</A> <UL> <LI><A HREF="these_body.html#th.iv.30.16.10">Endogoneous variables from the Population module:</A> </LI> <LI><A HREF="these_body.html#th.iv.30.16.11">Endogoneous variables from the Education module:</A> </LI> <LI><A HREF="these_body.html#th.iv.30.16.12">Endogoneous variables from the Employment module:</A> </LI> <LI><A HREF="these_body.html#th.iv.30.16.13">Endogoneous variables from the Labour module: </A> </LI> <LI><A HREF="these_body.html#th.iv.30.16.14">Endogoneous variables from the Transfer module:</A> </LI> </UL> </LI> <LI><A HREF="these_body.html#th.iv.30.17">b. Normal maximum ranges of selected parameters</A> <UL> <LI><A HREF="these_body.html#th.iv.30.17.15">Upper range</A> </LI> </UL> </LI> <LI><A HREF="these_body.html#th.iv.30.18">c. List of exogoneous variables</A> </LI> </UL> </LI> <LI><A HREF="these_body.html#th.iv.31"><STRONG>Appendix 3</STRONG></A> <UL> <LI><A HREF="these_body.html#th.iv.31.19">Examples of program menus</A> </LI> </UL> </LI> <LI><A HREF="these_body.html#th.iv.32"><STRONG>Appendix 4</STRONG></A> <UL> <LI><A HREF="these_body.html#th.iv.32.20">Examples of graphs produced by MACBETH</A> </LI> </UL> </LI> </UL> <P><A HREF="these_body.html#th.v"><STRONG>V: An application of the MACBETH model to labour market and human resource analysis in Sri Lanka</STRONG></A></P> <UL> <LI><A HREF="these_body.html#th.v.33"><STRONG>1. Introduction</STRONG></A> </LI> <LI><A HREF="these_body.html#th.v.34"><STRONG>2. Calibration of the model</STRONG></A> </LI> <LI><A HREF="these_body.html#th.v.35"><STRONG>3. Base year data for MACBETH</STRONG></A> <UL> <LI><A HREF="these_body.html#th.v.35.21">3.1 Population</A> </LI> <LI><A HREF="these_body.html#th.v.35.22">3.2 Education</A> </LI> <LI><A HREF="these_body.html#th.v.35.23">3.3 Employment</A> </LI> <LI><A HREF="these_body.html#th.v.35.24">3.4 The economy</A> </LI> </UL> </LI> <LI><A HREF="these_body.html#th.v.36"><STRONG>4. Results of the base scenario retained (scenario 1)</STRONG></A> </LI> <LI><A HREF="these_body.html#th.v.37"><STRONG>5. Alternative scenarios</STRONG></A> <UL> <LI><A HREF="these_body.html#th.v.37.25">5.1 High growth from increased investment (scenario 2)</A> </LI> <LI><A HREF="these_body.html#th.v.37.26">5.2 An 'economist's' interpretation of scenario 2 (scenario 3)</A> </LI> <LI><A HREF="these_body.html#th.v.37.27">5.3 A 'NIC</A> </LI> <LI><A HREF="these_body.html#th.v.37.28">5.4 Scenario 1 plus increased population growth (scenario 5)</A> </LI> <LI><A HREF="these_body.html#th.v.37.29">5.5 A worst case scenario (scenario 6)</A> </LI> </UL> </LI> <LI><A HREF="these_body.html#th.v.38"><STRONG>6. Comparison of some key MACBETH variables (base scenario) with "actual" figure around 2000</STRONG></A> </LI> <LI><A HREF="these_body.html#th.v.39"><STRONG>7. Summary and conclusions</STRONG></A> <UL> <LI><A HREF="these_body.html#th.v.39.30">7.1 On the model</A> </LI> <LI><A HREF="these_body.html#th.v.39.31">7.2 On the economy</A> </LI> </UL> </LI> </UL> <P><A HREF="these_body.html#th.vi"><STRONG>VI: Labour Market Signalling through Survey Analysis - an Alternative to Manpower Planning?</STRONG></A></P> <UL> <LI><A HREF="these_body.html#th.vi.40"><STRONG>1. Introduction</STRONG></A> </LI> <LI><A HREF="these_body.html#th.vi.41"><STRONG>2. Key informants survey</STRONG></A> <UL> <LI><A HREF="these_body.html#th.vi.41.32">2.1 Procedures</A> </LI> <LI><A HREF="these_body.html#th.vi.41.33">2.2 Findings</A> </LI> <LI><A HREF="these_body.html#th.vi.41.34">2.3 Summary of main results of key informant survey</A> </LI> </UL> </LI> <LI><A HREF="these_body.html#th.vi.42"><STRONG>3. Tracer survey</STRONG></A> <UL> <LI><A HREF="these_body.html#th.vi.42.35">3.1 Methodology</A> </LI> <LI><A HREF="these_body.html#th.vi.42.36">3.2 Findings</A> </LI> <LI><A HREF="these_body.html#th.vi.42.37">3.3 Summary of main results of Tracer Survey</A> </LI> </UL> </LI> <LI><A HREF="these_body.html#th.vi.43"><STRONG>4. Establishment survey</STRONG></A> <UL> <LI><A HREF="these_body.html#th.vi.43.38">4.1 Methodology</A> </LI> <LI><A HREF="these_body.html#th.vi.43.39">4.2 Results</A> </LI> <LI><A HREF="these_body.html#th.vi.43.40">4.3 Summary of main results of Establishment<STRONG> </STRONG>survey</A> </LI> </UL> </LI> <LI><A HREF="these_body.html#th.vi.44"><STRONG>5. Initial identification of key occupations for training</STRONG></A> <UL> <LI><A HREF="these_body.html#th.vi.44.41">5.1 Unemployment data as indicators</A> </LI> <LI><A HREF="these_body.html#th.vi.44.42">5.2. The survey results on identifying training needs</A> </LI> </UL> </LI> <LI><A HREF="these_body.html#th.vi.45"><STRONG>6. Conclusions and lessons learned</STRONG></A> </LI> <LI><A HREF="these_body.html#th.vi.46"><STRONG>Appendix 1: Selected results from key informant survey</STRONG></A> </LI> <LI><A HREF="these_body.html#th.vi.47"><STRONG>Appendix 2: Selected results from Tracer survey</STRONG></A> </LI> <LI><A HREF="these_body.html#th.vi.48"><STRONG>Appendix 3: Selected results from Establishment survey</STRONG></A> </LI> </UL> <P><A HREF="these_body.html#th.vii"><STRONG>VII: Conclusions</STRONG></A></P> <UL> <LI><A HREF="these_body.html#th.vii.49"><STRONG>Manpower planning</STRONG></A> </LI> <LI><A HREF="these_body.html#th.vii.50"><STRONG>Labour market theories</STRONG></A> </LI> <LI><A HREF="these_body.html#th.vii.51"><STRONG>Data issues</STRONG></A> </LI> <LI><A HREF="these_body.html#th.vii.52"><STRONG>The MACBETH model</STRONG></A> </LI> <LI><A HREF="these_body.html#th.vii.53"><STRONG>Labour market signalling</STRONG></A> </LI> <LI><A HREF="these_body.html#th.vii.54"><STRONG>Overall conclusion</STRONG></A> <HR NOSHADE> <P><A TARGET="BodyFrame" HREF="these_notes.html#NOTE"><STRONG>Note(s)</STRONG></A></P> </BODY>