Multilateral bargaining at the 2004 IGC and referendums: An empirical assessment1

Simon Hug2

Mar 28, 2010

Appendix

In this appendix I first in tables I report the estimation results of the ordinal factor analysis, where l1 may be interpreted as the difficulty of the item, while l2 and l3 estimate the effect of the corresponding variable on the first and second dimensions of the factor analysis. Table reports the descriptive statistics of the variables used in the empirical analysis reported in table 3.

Table 4: Questions employed and factor scores
l1 l2 l3
No Question (s.e.) (s.e.) (s.e.)
continued l1 l2 l3
No Question (s.e.) (s.e.) (s.e.)
DOSEI Expert survey
Q1 1. Charter of fundamental rights 2.240 0.930 0.390
(0.560) (0.600) (0.980)
Q2 2. Subsidiarity -1.180 -0.250 0.340
(0.360) (0.710) (0.680)
Q3 3. Religious reference in the preamble of the constitution 0.360 0.150 -0.140
(0.270) (0.450) (0.460)
Q4 4. Right to withdraw from the union 0.410 0.240 -0.380
(0.290) (0.590) (0.540)
Q5.A 5.1 Objectives: market economy 1.830 0.880 -0.240
(0.460) (0.760) (0.980)
Q5.B 5.2 Objectives: employment 1.690 0.450 0.240
(0.370) (0.530) (0.620)
Q5.C 5.3 Objectives: High level of competitiveness 1.470 0.390 -0.550
(0.430) (0.930) (0.870)
Q6 6. Presidency european council (term) 0.910 0.740 0.140
(0.350) (0.620) (0.870)
Q7 7. Election of the president european council -0.600 -0.180 0.710
(0.330) (0.910) (0.700)
Q8 8. Qualified majority threshold 0.700 0.850 0.020
(0.330) (0.630) (0.930)
Q9 9. Composition commission -0.910 0.810 -1.010
+ Q2907 At least one Commissioner from each member state, after enlargement? (0.450) (1.260) (1.130)
Q10 10. Appointment / election of the commission president -1.000 -0.180 0.180
(0.330) (0.600) (0.600)
Q11 11. Appointment of commissioners -0.150 1.010 -0.090
(0.350) (0.780) (1.130)
Q12 12. External representation of the union 1.890 0.830 0.150
(0.410) (0.620) (0.930)
Q13.a 13.A Appointment of the EU foreign minister 1.390 1.030 0.070
(0.460) (0.950) (1.280)
Q13.b 13.B Approval of EU foreign minister by EP -0.450 -0.420 0.260
(0.300) (0.640) (0.700)
Q14 14. Jurisdiction 1.250 0.310 0.670
(0.370) (0.810) (0.650)
Q15.B 15.2 Right of initiative of legislative acts: European Parliament -1.240 -0.380 0.860
(0.410) (1.120) (0.880)
Q15.C 15.3 Right of initiative of legislative acts: Council -1.560 -0.020 -0.170
(0.430) (0.680) (0.690)
Q15.E 15.5 Right of initiative of legislative acts: citizens -0.710 0.670 -0.320
(0.360) (0.730) (0.850)
Q16 16. Enhanced Cooperation: scope 1.910 1.590 -0.970
(0.620) (1.510) (1.700)
Q17.1 17.1 Delegation of competencies: agriculture 1.400 0.040 0.380
(0.380) (0.590) (0.520)
Q17.2 Q17.2 Structural and cohesion policies -1.190 0.120 0.930
(0.430) (1.150) (0.880)
Q17.3 17.3 Delegation of competencies: area of freedom, security and justice 2.010 1.010 -0.260
(0.490) (0.840) (1.140)
Q17.4 17.4 Delegation of competencies: foreign policy -0.100 1.280 -0.050
(0.400) (0.960) (1.410)
Q17.5 Q17.5 Economic policy -0.430 0.780 0.640
(0.360) (0.940) (1.070)
Q17.6 17.6 Delegation of competencies: tax harmonization -0.730 0.940 0.790
(0.410) (1.100) (1.210)
Q17.7 Q17.7 Employment policy -0.620 0.350 1.050
(0.390) (1.220) (0.950)
Q17.8 17.8 Delegation of competencies: social policy -0.730 0.890 0.800
(0.420) (1.150) (1.240)
Q17.9 17.9 Delegation of competencies: health -0.380 0.510 0.360
(0.320) (0.680) (0.780)
Q17.10 Q17.10 Enviroment -0.710 0.140 1.160
(0.400) (1.320) (0.950)
Q17.11 17.11 Delegation of competencies: education -1.050 0.280 0.760
(0.390) (0.980) (0.820)
Q17.12 17.12 Delegation of competencies: research, technological development and space 0.080 1.020 0.110
(0.360) (0.810) (1.180)
Q18.A2 18.A2 Involvement of the parliament: structural and cohesion policies 1.650 0.030 0.240
(0.420) (0.630) (0.620)
Q18.A3 18.A3 Involvement of the parliament: area of freedom, security and justice 0.300 0.700 -0.230
(0.320) (0.700) (0.880)
Q18.A5 18.A5 Involvement of the parliament: tax harmonization -0.790 1.310 -0.080
(0.430) (0.970) (1.440)
Q18.A6 18.A6 Involvement of the parliament: monetary policy (for the Euro-States) 0.700 0.850 0.510
(0.380) (0.900) (1.090)
Q18.A7 18.A7 Involvement of the parliament: economic policy 0.620 0.700 0.620
(0.380) (0.910) (1.000)
Q18.A8 18.A8 Involvement of the parliament: employment policy 1.540 0.720 -0.240
(0.460) (0.960) (1.070)
Q18.A9 18.A9 Involvement of the parliament: social policy 0.530 0.680 -0.800
(0.370) (1.100) (1.010)
Q18.A10 18.A10 Involvement of the parliament: social security rights -0.333 1.286 0.749
(0.430) (1.190) (1.510)
Q18.A11 18.A11 Involvement of the parliament: common foreign policy -0.648 1.082 0.021
(0.380) (0.830) (1.210)
Q18.A12 18.A12 Involvement of the parliament: defense policy -1.564 1.314 0.043
(0.510) (0.950) (1.450)
Q18.B1 18.B1 Council voting rule: agriculture 0.890 -0.110 0.570
(0.360) (0.770) (0.640)
Q18.B2 18.B2 Council voting rule: structural and cohesion policies 2.110 -0.260 0.750
(0.570) (0.980) (0.810)
Q18.B3 18.B3 Council voting rule: area of freedom, security and justice 0.300 0.600 0.310
(0.320) (0.700) (0.830)
Q18.B4 18.B4 Council voting rule: internal market 1.560 -0.060 0.650
(0.460) (0.920) (0.750)
Q18.B5 18.B5 Council voting rule: tax harmonization -0.770 1.350 0.870
(0.470) (1.330) (1.630)
Q18.B6 18.B6 Council voting rule: monetary policy (for the Euro-States) 0.270 0.100 1.390
(0.430) (1.520) (1.020)
Q18.B7 18.B7 Council voting rule: economic policy 0.320 -0.070 1.520
(0.450) (1.650) (1.080)
Q18.B8 18.B8 Council voting rule: employment policy 0.650 0.560 1.330
(0.460) (1.490) (1.180)
Q18.B9 18.B9 Council voting rule: social policy 0.650 0.270 0.080
(0.310) (0.570) (0.610)
Q18.B10 18.B10 Council voting rule: social security rights -0.316 0.612 1.118
(0.400) (1.280) (1.120)
Q18.B11 18.B11 Council voting rule: common foreign policy -1.566 0.281 1.063
(0.520) (1.260) (0.990)
Q18.B12 18.B12 Council voting rule: defense policy -1.575 0.297 1.046
(0.520) (1.270) (0.980)
Q19 19. Involvement of the parliament in the adoption of the budget 0.330 0.200 0.050
(0.280) (0.420) (0.470)
Q20 20. Stability and growth pact -0.270 -0.150 0.350
(0.300) (0.590) (0.540)
Q21 21. Stability and growth pact 0.370 0.240 0.220
(0.300) (0.550) (0.570)
Q22 22. Common security and defense policy 0.340 1.920 -0.480
(0.470) (1.280) (1.940)
Q23 23. Management system for external borders (scope of union action) 0.870 0.560 0.100
(0.330) (0.530) (0.720)
Q24 24. Migration and asylum policy: scope of union action 0.730 1.170 -0.850
(0.420) (1.160) (1.310)

Table 5: Cutoff points (g) for ordinal variables in factor analysis
b
cutoff point (s.e.)
Q1.2 1.526
(0.490)
Q3.2 0.179
(0.113)
Q3.3 0.945
(0.190)
Q3.4 1.486
(0.239)
Q4.2 1.431
(0.295)
Q5.A.2 1.567
(0.418)
Q5.B.2 1.809
(0.353)
Q5.B.3 2.786
(0.405)
Q6.2 1.141
(0.319)
Q8.2 0.676
(0.240)
Q8.3 1.897
(0.359)
Q9.2 0.295
(0.200)
Q10.2 0.893
(0.364)
Q11.2 0.194
(0.127)
Q12.2 1.287
(0.359)
Q12.3 4.219
(0.541)
Q14.2 2.482
(0.418)
Q16.2 2.086
(0.661)
Q17.1.2 2.443
(0.464)
Q17.3.2 1.634
(0.424)
Q18.A2.2 0.350
(0.220)
Q18.B2.2 0.480
(0.359)
Q19.2 0.502
(0.177)
Q22.2 0.948
(0.285)
Q22.3 3.825
(0.423)
Q23.2 1.582
(0.336)
Q24.2 0.443
(0.258)
Q24.3 1.508
(0.364)

Table 6: Factor analysis (l) for parties and voters
no question l1 l2 l3
bbb
(s.e.)(s.e.)(s.e.)
Q2902 For or against - one common foreign policy -3.547 1.721 -2.597
(0.729) (0.707) (0.946)
Q2903 For or against - common defence and security policy -3.239 1.131 -1.521
(0.448) (0.415) (0.538)
Q2906 For or against - A constitution for the EU -2.908 1.262 -1.756
(0.449) (0.527) (0.598)
Q2907 For or against - the EC commissioners coming from each of the member states -0.910 0.810 -1.010
(fixed) (fixed) (fixed)
Q3003 Agree ot not - The EU should have its own Foreign Minister, who can be the spokesperson for a common EU position -2.815 1.257 -2.062
(0.418) (0.606) (0.527)
Q3009 Agree ot not - The EU should have a common immigration policy towards people from outside the EU -3.182 -0.304 -1.206
(0.653) (0.441) (0.556)
Q3010 Agree ot not - The EU should have a common asylum policy towards asylum seekers -2.598 0.072 -0.784
(0.402) (0.467) (0.410)
Q31 In your opinion, should decisions concerning European defence policy be taken by national government, NATO or EU? 1.888 -0.258 1.026
(0.151) (0.341) (0.233)
Q32 The presidency of the Council is taken by each country in turn, for a period of six months 0.417 0.616 0.468
(0.167) (0.304) (0.304)
Q33 Opinion about the right of veto -1.029 1.238 0.293
(0.264) (0.462) (0.440)
Q34 Preferred voting method within the EU Council of Ministers -1.848 1.075 0.159
(0.280) (0.445) (0.463)

Table 7: Descriptive statistics
var min mean max s.d. N
gains overall -0.02250 0.7311 1.122 0.367 25
gains at IGC -0.089 0.019 0.092 0.065 25
Referendum before end of IGC 0.000 0.360 1.000 0.490 25
Absolute value of angle 1.680 66.690 179.850 53.518 25
voters for 0.000 0.560 1.000 0.507 25




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On 28 Mar 2010, 12:59.