Nitzan Attias1, Eran Halperin 2, Simon Hug3 4  , Sandra Penic5, Daan Vandermeule6

First version: March 2025, this version: Mar 14, 2025
Paper prepared for presentation at the  
Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association (Vancouver, September 12-15, 2025)

The Short-Term Impact of Conflict Exposure. A Rolling Cross-Section Study

The Short-Term Impact of Conflict Exposure. A Rolling Cross-Section Study 7

Abstract

Conflict exposure has well-documented consequences for individuals, both in the short and long term. However, empirical research on the short-term effects often faces significant limitations, particularly due to the timing constraints of traditional survey designs. This challenge is especially pronounced in ongoing conflicts, such as the Gaza war that began in October 2023. To address these limitations, we adopted a rolling cross-section survey design, a method commonly used in election campaign studies, to capture dynamic public opinion shifts during the conflict. Over a six-month period, we surveyed a daily random sample of roughly 50 Israeli citizens (total N=12000), examining their positions on policies related to the conflict. Our findings reveal that immediate exposure to conflict events - such as sirens and casualties - significantly influences policy positions in the short term. These effects, however, tend to dissipate over time. This study highlights the utility of rolling cross-section designs in conflict research, providing valuable insights into the temporal dynamics of public opinion during ongoing conflicts.

Footnotes:

1Hebrew University
2Hebrew University
3  Département de science politique et relations internationales, Université de Genève, 40 Bd du Pont d'Arve, 1211 Genève 4; Switzerland, phone +41 22 379 83 78, email: simon.hug@unige.ch.
4 CefES research fellow, Università degli Studi di Milano-Bicocca
5  Département de science politique et relations internationales, Université de Genève, 40 Bd du Pont d'Arve, 1211 Genève 4; Switzerland, email: Sandra.PenicJunge@unige.ch
6Hebrew University
7Funding by the Swiss National Science Foundation is greatly appreciated.

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