1st IUGG-WMO workshop on
Ash dispersal forecast and civil aviation
November 18-20, 2010
As a result of the recent Eyjafjallajökull eruption in Iceland we feel the necessity for the tephra-dispersal community to revise our current approach to dispersal forecasting and provide a more robust and reliable response to the social needs. There is urgency for a new integrated strategy, based on the collaboration amongst the volcanological and meteorological communities and the International Civil Aviation Organization, which ensures that both the scientific knowledge and aviation safety aspects are considered. This is part of the effort of the IAVCEI Commission on Tephra Hazard Modelling and of the International Volcanic Ash Task Force.
|Main objectives of the workshop
- Produce a consensual document that describes the limits of application of different dispersal models (e.g. type of eruption, conditions, spatial range, computing time) and the sensitivity to different input parameters.
- Identify the needs of the modelling community, namely:
- Input parameters (eruption parameters: mass flow rate, grainsize, plume height, vertical mass distribution, erupted mass; meteorological data)
- Initial conditions (e.g. introduction of data assimilation, sort of “hot start”)
- Real-time acquisition of input parameters
- Real-time probabilistic forecast
- Ensemble forecast
- Discuss how to improve communication between volcanological community and operational agencies.
- Costanza Bonadonna, Earth Sciences Section, University of Geneva, Switzerland
- Arnau Folch, Earth Sciences Division, Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Spain
- Herbert Puempel, WMO, Aeronautical Meteorology Division
- Sue Loughlin, British Geological Survey, UK